Simulation

Uniswap v4 Pool Parameters

2 single-sided liquidity pool of $TRUMP-USDC and $KAMA-USDC is deployed.

2.5% of the total transaction volume will be added to the pool from fees.

Scenario

Participant A decided to buy $1000 USDC on $TRUMP. Participant B decided to buy $9000 USDC on $KAMA.

If LP of Pool 1 (TRUMP-USDC) has a reserve amount of 1,000 USDC, and Pool 2 (KAMALA-USDC) has a reserve of 9,000 USDC, the probability of KAMALA winning is 90% whereas the probability of TRUMP is 10%.

The ticks will increment as the orders are fulfilled, pushing up the price of both outcome tokens rewarding early buyers to participate in crowd sourcing liquidity. This gives participants uncapped upside.

Below is a table of the total expected payout to the winning token outcome holders during settlement, assuming Trump wins the election.

Reserves of USDC in $TRUMP-USDC (in $)	Reserves of USDC in $KAMA-USDC (in $)	Total Trading Volume (in $)	Total Fees (2.5%) Collected from LP (in $)	Total Expected Prize Pool (in $)
50000	50000	100,000	2500	102500
50000	50000	200,000	5000	205000
50000	50000	400,000	10000	410000
100000	100000	200,000	5000	205000
100000	100000	400,000	10000	410000
100000	100000	800,000	20000	820000